Approaches for determining in season TAC increases for 2nd Schedule stocks

Trophia has been contracted by the New Zealand Ministry of Fisheries (MFish) to characterise the inshore fisheries in FMA 2 and identify abundance indices for the key species . The specific objectives for this project include:

1. To examine approaches for determining in-season TAC increases in FLA and RCO stocks.

When providing for in-season or pre-season TAC changes it is not enough to simply be able to predict that, based on historic relationships, the current TAC will constrain catches. Ultimately, what is required is a method for formulating what magnitude of TAC increase is appropriate given the predicted abundance increase. This in turn requires some knowledge of the dynamics of the species, the precision of alternative methods for predicting abundance and management objectives for the fishery. The first phase of this project examines alternative methods for predicting abundance. The second phase uses the best methods found, along with estimates of their precision, to design and evaluate alternative TAC-setting procedures in terms of a set of management performance measures.

There has been little work done in New Zealand on characterising mixed species fisheries and the interactions within them. Trophia scientists are interested in developing new methods and ways of presenting data that will describe the interactions among fisheries in a way that is useful to managers.

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Our approach to this project will be divided into two phases:

Analysis of historical data to assess alternative methods for predicting abundance.
Design and evaluation of management procedures for TAC changes.

This work is funded by MFish project INS2008/02