Review future recruitment assumptions in stock projections

Trophia was contracted by the New Zealand Ministry of Fisheries (MFish) to review future recruitment assumptions in stock projections.

In managing fisheries, future projections of biomass from assessment models are usually used to determine appropriate catch limits in the short to medium term. If recruitment variation has a large impact on the biomass, estimation of future recruitment is essential for robust management. Projections may require assumptions to be made on the recruitment to the fish stock over periods ranging up to five years. There exist a wide range of methods for including future recruitment in these models and a variety of data sources are often used. The aim of this project is to review alternative methodologies for incorporating this recruitment information in stock projections.

This work was funded by MFish project SAM2002-04

Output includes: Presentation and report to the Ministry of Fisheries Stock Assessments Methods Working Group. A Final Research Report held by teh Ministry of Fisheries, and a primary publication on aspects of the work.

Maunder, M.N.; Harley, S.J. (2004). Review and analysis of methods to include information about recruitment in stock projections. Unpublished Final Research Report held by the Ministry of Fisheries for project SAM2002-04.

Mark N. Maunder, Shelton, J. Harley, and John Hampton (In press) Including parameter uncertainty in forward projections of computationally intensive statistical population dynamic models.